Five of the most actively traded stocks in the options market report Q1 2026 earnings this week. Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple account for hundreds of thousands of options contracts traded daily, and earnings week sends that volume even higher. If you trade options on any of these names, the single most important number to know before the report is the priced expected move.
Key Takeaways
- The ATM straddle price on the earnings-expiration Friday tells you exactly what the options market expects the stock to move by expiration.
- Each stock has a different personality: META and AMZN tend to make large moves, AAPL the smallest, MSFT and GOOGL in the middle.
- IV crush after earnings is not optional. Long options positions held through the report will lose a large chunk of value immediately in after-hours trading, even on a big move.
- For premium sellers, IV crush is the strategy. For buyers, you need the actual move to exceed the expected move to profit.
- Know your strategy’s Greek exposure before earnings. A short-vega position (iron condor) benefits from IV collapse. A long-vega position (long straddle) needs the actual move to exceed what was priced in.
How to Read the Expected Move
The simplest way to extract what the options market is pricing for any earnings event: look at the price of the at-the-money straddle expiring on the nearest Friday after the report.
For a hypothetical example: if a stock is trading at $500 and the nearest-expiry ATM 500 call is priced at $18 and the 500 put is priced at $16, the market is pricing an expected move of roughly $34 (the sum of both premiums), or about 6.8% in either direction.
This number is not a guarantee or a forecast. It is the market’s best estimate of a one standard deviation move. About 68% of the time, the stock stays within this range. About 32% of the time it does not.
A more refined version uses the strangle price (the sum of the first OTM call and put). Both methods give similar readings and are displayed natively on most modern options platforms. For a deeper look at how IV drives the expected move calculation, see our guide to implied volatility explained.
The Five Stocks: What Each One Moves On
Meta Platforms (META)
Key metric: total revenue and advertising revenue growth, particularly whether AI-driven ad targeting investments are producing measurable revenue lift. Forward guidance on capital expenditure (high due to AI infrastructure spending) also moves the stock. META has historically been one of the larger movers in this group on earnings, with percentage moves in the high single digits to low double digits not uncommon. The options market typically prices a wider expected move for META than for MSFT or AAPL.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Key metric: Azure cloud revenue growth rate. Wall Street focuses intensely on the year-over-year acceleration or deceleration in Azure’s percentage growth. MSFT tends to be a more contained mover than META or AMZN, with the historical distribution skewing toward moderate surprises. Copilot and AI-assisted commercial product revenue are growing as secondary data points analysts watch closely.
Amazon (AMZN)
Key metric: AWS revenue and especially operating income from AWS and the consolidated company. Amazon’s stock has historically moved on profitability surprises more than revenue, because the market expects AWS to grow. An earnings beat that comes primarily from cost cuts rather than AWS acceleration is treated differently by the market than a genuine AWS growth acceleration. AMZN can be a large mover in either direction.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Key metric: Google Search advertising revenue (still the majority of total revenue) and Google Cloud revenue growth. Alphabet has added YouTube and Google Cloud as meaningful growth contributors, and strong cloud results can offset Search deceleration or vice versa. GOOGL typically moves less than META or AMZN on earnings but more than AAPL. A surprise in either cloud or Search tends to drive the largest moves.
Apple (AAPL)
Key metric: Services revenue (App Store, Apple One, Apple TV+, AppleCare) and greater China revenue. iPhone units are still reported but the market values Apple increasingly on Services margin. AAPL has historically been the most contained mover in this group on earnings. When AAPL does move sharply, it is typically on China-specific guidance or an unexpected Services miss. AAPL reports April 30, one day after the other four.
IV Crush: The Guaranteed Event
Every one of these five stocks will experience a sharp drop in implied volatility immediately after the earnings report, typically in after-hours trading, not the following morning. This IV crush happens regardless of whether the stock goes up, down, or nowhere.
Why: the uncertainty priced into options before earnings disappears the moment results are known. Market makers immediately reprice IV lower because the event has resolved.
What this means in practice: if you buy a straddle before earnings and the stock moves 6%, but the expected move was also 6%, you will likely break even or lose slightly after IV crush removes the vega value from your position. You need the actual move to clearly exceed the expected move to generate a net profit from a long straddle held through the print. For a real-world case study of how this plays out, see our IV crush case study.
For premium sellers, the dynamic is reversed: an iron condor entered a few days before earnings collects elevated IV as premium, then benefits from the IV collapse after the report as long as the stock stays within the short strikes.
Strategy Framework
| Strategy | View | Risk Profile | When It Works |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short iron condor | Stock stays within expected move | Defined risk, defined reward | IV rank elevated; no strong directional view |
| Long straddle | Big move, direction uncertain | Defined risk; needs actual move to exceed expected move | IV rank low; expecting unusual volatility |
| Vertical spread (call or put) | Directional conviction | Defined risk | Clear directional read; want leverage with limited loss |
| Pre-earnings IV run | IV will expand into the event | Long options 3-5 days before; close before report | IV rank low; IV likely to expand as event approaches |
| Close and stay flat | No edge on the event | Zero | Avoid event risk entirely; re-enter after the print |
These are illustrative strategy categories, not specific trade recommendations. The right choice depends on your account size, risk tolerance, the specific option pricing on the day you trade, and your view on each company.
Common Mistakes
Entering a short spread the morning of earnings after IV has already spiked. The credit available on the morning of a report can look attractive, but IV may have already priced in substantial risk. You are accepting the full event risk while collecting premium that is already fully discounted by the market.
Buying a “cheap” call the day before earnings. A $0.50 call does not feel expensive, but if IV is at 120% and collapses to 40% after the report, even a 5% stock move can leave the call worth less than you paid. The absolute dollar price tells you nothing: the implied volatility level tells you everything.
Ignoring which metric actually matters for that stock. MSFT earnings are about Azure growth rate. AMZN earnings are about AWS operating income. AAPL earnings are about Services revenue. Trading options on these stocks without knowing what analysts expect and what the actual print was is trading blind.
Holding through the press conference without a plan. Both MSFT and META often move further during or after management commentary than on the initial numbers. Have a plan for how to manage your position if the stock gaps through your strikes in after-hours trading. Defined-risk spreads can be closed in pre-market; short strangles cannot be managed with the same ease.
Broker Tools for Earnings Options
tastytrade shows the Expected Move as a built-in cone on the price chart, updated in real time as IV changes. The earnings-expiry contracts are highlighted directly in the options chain. Options close at $0 (no closing commission at tastytrade), which matters when managing spreads after the report in after-hours trading.
thinkorswim (Charles Schwab) includes an Earnings Price History panel showing the last several earnings results with actual versus expected move comparisons. The Analyze tab lets you model your position P&L across any assumed stock price and IV level after the print.
Interactive Brokers offers the Volatility Lab, which displays IV term structure across all expirations for a given stock. Before a high-IV event like earnings, this is useful for comparing how the earnings-week expiry is priced against longer-dated contracts, and for identifying whether the current IV is elevated relative to historical norms.
One platform note for 0DTE traders: Robinhood closes 0DTE equity options at 3:00 PM ET, one hour before market close. If your strategy involves precision timing close to the 4 PM close on earnings day, you need a platform that allows later closing.
Bottom Line
This week’s Big Tech earnings cluster covers five of the most liquid options in the market, each with a distinct personality and a specific metric that drives the outcome. Read the expected move from the ATM straddle before you trade. Decide whether you want to sell premium around the expected move range or buy volatility in hopes the actual move exceeds it. And have a post-earnings plan before the report drops.
FAQ
Q: How do I find the expected move for each stock before earnings?
A: Look at the ATM straddle price for the Friday expiration nearest each company’s report date. Sum the ATM call and ATM put prices. That sum is the market’s implied expected move in dollar terms. Divide by the stock price to get the percentage.
Q: Why did my call lose money even though the stock went up after earnings?
A: IV crush. After the report, implied volatility drops sharply, reducing the vega component of your option’s value. If the stock’s move was within the expected range, the IV crush can erase more value than the directional gain adds. This is the most common surprise for options buyers around earnings.
Q: Which of these five stocks typically moves the most on earnings?
A: Historically, META and AMZN have produced the largest percentage moves on earnings in recent years. AAPL has consistently been the most contained mover. MSFT and GOOGL fall in the middle. That said, the historical pattern is a guide, not a guarantee: check the current IV and the priced expected move on the actual options chain before the report.
Q: Can I profit if I don’t know which way the stock will go?
A: Yes. An iron condor profits if the stock stays within a defined range. A long straddle profits if the stock moves sharply in either direction beyond the expected move. Neither is risk-free, but both remove the need to pick direction. See our breakdown of short straddle mechanics for context on how the opposite (short straddle) works.
Q: What happens to my iron condor if the stock gaps beyond my short strikes in after-hours?
A: Defined-risk spreads can be closed in pre-market or at the open the next morning. The spread will be at or near max loss, but you cannot lose more than the width of the spread minus the credit collected. This is the value of using defined-risk structures for earnings rather than short strangles or naked options.