Broadcom reports fiscal Q3 2026 results Wednesday, September 2, after the market closes, and options are pricing an 8.7% move on a $1.77 trillion company, above the stock’s own 10-year average earnings-day move of 7.4%. That premium exists for a specific reason: the last time Broadcom reported, on June 3, it beat both revenue and EPS estimates and the stock still fell roughly 12% because next-quarter AI chip guidance came in below what the Street wanted. This report is that next quarter.
Key Takeaways
- Broadcom (AVGO) reports fiscal Q3 2026 results Wednesday, September 2, 2026, after market close, with the call at 2:00pm PT / 5:00pm ET
- Consensus estimates cluster around $29.4 billion in revenue and roughly $3.24 non-GAAP EPS, with AI semiconductor revenue guided to about $16 billion, over 200% year-over-year growth
- The at-the-money straddle is pricing an implied move of about 8.7%, above Broadcom’s 10-year average earnings-day move of 7.4% and well above the 10-year median of 5.8%
- Broadcom’s actual move has exceeded the implied move in roughly 10 of its last 16 reports (about 62% of the time), and the prior quarter’s actual move (about 12%) blew through an 8.7% implied move
- Every example below is hypothetical and illustrative. Nothing here is a price target, a forecast, or a recommendation to buy or sell AVGO or any option on it
Why This Print Is Different From a Normal Beat-or-Miss
On June 3, 2026, Broadcom reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $22.19 billion (above the $22.13 billion consensus) and EPS of $2.44 (above the $2.39 estimate). By the usual scorecard, that’s a clean beat. The stock still sank about 12% the next session because management guided Q3 AI semiconductor revenue to $16 billion, short of the roughly $17.2 billion analysts had modeled, and did not raise its standing target of $100 billion in cumulative AI semiconductor revenue by fiscal 2027.
That $16 billion Q3 AI-revenue guide from June is the exact number now sitting in this week’s consensus. The question the market is pricing isn’t really “did Broadcom have a good quarter,” it’s “did AI chip demand come in at, above, or below the number management itself set three months ago.” A number that merely matches guidance could read as a relief rally after a stock that’s traded as low as $287.17 this year, well off its 52-week high of $495.00. A number that misses guidance again, on top of an already-cautious setup, has more room to disappoint a market that’s already discounted some of the AI-euphoria premium out of the stock.
What the Street Is Actually Pricing
Consensus for the September 2 report clusters around $29.4 billion in total revenue and non-GAAP EPS near $3.24. The AI semiconductor segment, custom accelerators (XPUs) built for hyperscalers like Google and Meta plus networking silicon that connects them, is guided to roughly $16 billion for the quarter, which would represent year-over-year growth above 200%. VMware integration progress and margin commentary will also get scrutiny, since gross margin trends have been part of the “priced for perfection” narrative weighing on the stock since its Q4 FY2025 report.
As of this week, AVGO trades around $372.64 with a market cap near $1.77 trillion. Verified as of 2026-08-29. That’s meaningfully below the $495.00 high set earlier this year, which matters for how a beat gets read: a stock that’s already pulled back 20%+ from its highs has more room for a “good enough” number to spark a relief move than a stock sitting at all-time highs going in.
Reading the Expected Move
The expected move is derived from the price of the at-the-money straddle, buying the call and put at the strike closest to the current price, for the expiration closest to the report. As of this week, that straddle prices an implied move of roughly 8.7% on AVGO, meaning the options market expects a swing of somewhere in the neighborhood of $150 billion in market value by Friday’s close, in either direction.
Context matters here. Broadcom’s 10-year average earnings-day move sits at 7.4%, with a median of 5.8% and a 95th-percentile tail move of 16.1%. An 8.7% implied move is above both the average and the median, meaning the options market is already pricing this print as more uncertain than a typical Broadcom quarter, not a sleepy non-event. Over the last 16 reports, the actual move has exceeded the implied move roughly 62% of the time, a real edge historically for option buyers rather than premium sellers on this specific name, though past frequency is not a guarantee for any single print.
| Report Date | Implied Move (Priced) | Actual Move | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 3, 2026 (Q2 FY2026) | ~8.7% | ~12% | Actual exceeded implied |
| 10-year average | 7.4% | 7.4% | Baseline for comparison |
| 10-year median | 5.8% | 5.8% | Typical quieter print |
| 10-year 95th percentile | 16.1% | 16.1% | Tail-risk quarter |
Strategy Framework: Thinking Through the Setup, Not Predicting the Outcome
None of the following is a recommendation to open any specific position. These are illustrative frameworks for how a trader might think about an elevated-implied-move earnings event, nothing more.
A trader focused on defined risk into an event like this might consider a strategy like an iron condor sized to roughly 1.5x to 2x the implied move width rather than the implied move itself, given that Broadcom has exceeded its own priced move in a majority of recent reports. A hypothetical trader who sold an iron condor sized exactly to the 8.7% implied move on the June print would have had one side tested and likely breached given the actual ~12% move; sizing wider is one way premium sellers account for a stock with this move-exceeding-implied pattern, though wider sizing also collects less credit.
A trader with a directional view, bullish on AI capex spending continuing, bearish on further guidance disappointment, might instead look at a defined-risk vertical spread rather than a naked long call or put, since IV crush after the print can erase a large share of an option’s value even when the stock moves in the anticipated direction. A hypothetical long call bought purely on the expectation of a “relief rally” carries real risk of losing value to volatility collapse even if the stock ticks modestly higher.
For traders who want exposure without picking a direction, a long straddle or strangle is the textbook way to bet on the size of the move rather than its direction, but it only works if the actual move exceeds what’s already priced in, which happened in the June report but has not happened in every quarter historically.
What to Watch on the Call
Three specific numbers will likely drive the reaction more than the headline EPS print: whether AI semiconductor revenue lands at, above, or below the $16 billion guide; whether management raises, holds, or hedges the standing $100 billion cumulative AI revenue target for fiscal 2027; and any commentary on VMware margin trajectory, since that’s been a recurring source of investor skepticism separate from the AI chip story. A beat on headline revenue and EPS with a soft AI-specific number would likely repeat the June pattern; a genuine raise to the AI guidance, not just a reiteration, is what the market seems to actually need to reverse the stock’s pullback from its highs.
Execution matters as much as strategy selection on high-IV earnings names like this. {{AFFILIATE:tastytrade}} publishes real-time IV rank and expected-move data directly in the options chain, which is useful for checking whether the 8.7% figure above has moved by the time you’re actually placing a trade, since implied move compresses and expands right up until the closing bell.
Bottom Line
Options are pricing Broadcom’s September 2 report as more uncertain than a typical quarter for the stock, and the company’s own history of missing its own AI guidance is the specific reason why. Whatever you do with that information, size any position for a move larger than what’s priced, not smaller, and treat every number above as illustrative rather than predictive.
FAQ
Q: When does Broadcom report Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings?
A: Wednesday, September 2, 2026, after market close, with the conference call at 2:00pm PT / 5:00pm ET.
Q: What is the options market pricing for Broadcom’s earnings move?
A: As of this week, the at-the-money straddle implies roughly an 8.7% move by the nearest Friday expiration, above Broadcom’s 10-year average earnings-day move of 7.4%.
Q: Why did Broadcom stock fall after its last earnings report despite beating estimates?
A: Broadcom beat both revenue and EPS estimates on June 3, 2026, but guided Q3 AI semiconductor revenue to $16 billion, below the roughly $17.2 billion analysts expected, and did not raise its $100 billion cumulative AI revenue target for fiscal 2027. The stock fell about 12% on the guidance, not the quarter itself.
Q: What AI revenue number should I watch for in this report?
A: Consensus expects the AI semiconductor segment to come in around $16 billion, the same number management guided to in June. Whether Broadcom beats, matches, or misses its own prior guidance on this specific line is likely to matter more to the stock reaction than the headline EPS number.
Q: Has Broadcom’s actual earnings move typically exceeded the implied move?
A: Over the last 16 reports, the actual move has exceeded the implied move roughly 62% of the time, including the most recent quarter. That is a historical pattern, not a guarantee for this specific print.
For a deeper walkthrough of how to calculate and trade an expected move on any earnings report, not just this one, see our options expected-move playbook.