Cboe and Robinhood just put a concrete timeline on a product that has been sitting in SEC review since July: binary options tied to specific corporate earnings metrics, like SpaceX revenue or a bank’s credit-loss provisions, rather than a stock’s price. Robinhood will be the exclusive launch broker, the target window is October 2026, and the SEC now has a hard deadline of October 13, 2026 to approve, disapprove, or open proceedings on the underlying rule change. None of it is live yet, but the pieces are closer to trading than they have been all year.
- Cboe’s “KPI binary options” pay out on whether a specific company metric, like revenue or a credit-loss figure, lands above or below a line. Not the stock price.
- Robinhood is named as the first (and so far only) retail broker to offer them at launch.
- The SEC’s statutory decision deadline on Cboe’s rule filing is October 13, 2026.
- Cboe and Robinhood plan to waive fees on these contracts through the end of 2026.
- Nothing is tradable yet. This is a regulatory filing with a launch target, not a live product.
What Cboe and Robinhood actually announced
Cboe Global Markets filed with the SEC in early July 2026 to list all-or-nothing options on roughly 23 U.S.-listed companies, covering more than 100 possible underlying metrics. On September 30, 2026, Cboe and Robinhood announced at Robinhood’s HOOD Summit in Houston that Robinhood will be the exclusive retail broker offering these contracts when (and if) they launch, with Cboe targeting October 2026. Cboe also filed for temporary registration of its clearinghouse, Cboe Clear U.S., LLC, as a Covered Clearing Agency, which is the plumbing that has to be in place before any of this clears trades.
The piece that turns “sometime this year” into an actual date: the SEC has set October 13, 2026 as its statutory deadline to approve, disapprove, or institute proceedings to decide whether to disapprove Cboe’s rule change. That is 11 days out as of this writing. If the SEC approves on schedule, an October 2026 launch is plausible. If it opens proceedings instead, which regulators do routinely with new contract types, the timeline slips.
What a KPI binary option actually is
A standard option’s payout scales with how far the underlying moves past the strike. A call on a stock trading at $50 with a $55 strike pays more if the stock finishes at $65 than if it finishes at $56.
A binary (all-or-nothing) option does not scale. It pays a fixed amount if the condition is true at expiration and zero if it is not. Cboe’s KPI contracts apply that same yes/no structure to a company metric instead of a share price: did SpaceX’s quarterly revenue come in above a stated line, did a bank’s credit-loss provision stay under a threshold, did a chipmaker’s data-center segment hit a specific figure. The contract settles on the reported number, not on how the stock traded that day.
This is a meaningful structural difference from a standard earnings-reaction trade. A trader buying calls into an earnings report is betting on how the market will price the news. A trader buying a KPI binary contract is betting directly on the reported number itself, with no dependency on how the stock reacts to it.
Why metrics, not just price
Index-level and single-stock binary contracts already exist (Cboe’s existing Predicts line covers mini-SPX, for example). The KPI expansion is Cboe’s attempt to differentiate from other prediction-market venues by going granular: instead of “will this stock be up or down,” the question becomes “will this specific line item in the earnings report clear this specific number.” For a trader who has a real view on, say, a company’s margin trajectory but no particular view on how skittish the stock will be that day, that is a more precise instrument than a plain call or put.
Standard options vs. KPI binary options
| Feature | Standard option | Cboe KPI binary option |
|---|---|---|
| Payout | Scales with distance past strike | Fixed amount, yes/no outcome |
| Underlying | Stock or index price | A specific company metric (revenue, margin, provision, etc.) |
| Settlement basis | Market price at expiration | The reported metric value, as disclosed |
| Max loss (buyer) | Premium paid | Premium paid |
| Available today | Yes, on nearly every listed name | Not yet. Pending SEC decision by Oct 13, 2026 |
The fee waiver, and who gets it
Both Cboe and Robinhood have said they will waive fees on KPI binary options through the end of 2026. That is a standard new-product promotion: get volume flowing on an unfamiliar contract type before normal pricing kicks in. Robinhood’s broader 2026 fee changes have moved in the other direction for active traders generally (see the firm’s new $0.50-per-contract charge on accounts that trip its “Professional” options-volume threshold), which makes a fee-free KPI window a notable carve-out rather than the house style.
Interactive Brokers already lists existing Cboe Predicts contracts (the mini-SPX line), so traders on that platform have a sense of how Cboe’s binary structure trades day to day, even though IBKR has not been named as a launch venue for the new KPI product specifically. Traders who already have a Robinhood account will be first in line if the October 2026 target holds, since no other retail broker has been named for the initial rollout.
A hypothetical walk-through
Say Cboe lists a KPI contract on a semiconductor company’s upcoming data-center revenue, with the line set at $12 billion for the quarter. A trader who believes the company clears that number could buy the “yes” contract. If the company reports $12.4 billion, the contract settles at its fixed payout. If it reports $11.6 billion, the contract settles at zero, regardless of what the stock does that day. This is illustrative only. No specific KPI contracts have been listed yet, and nothing here should be read as a prediction about any real company’s upcoming results.
What’s still pending
As of this writing, none of this is live. The SEC has to act on Cboe’s rule filing by October 13, 2026 (approve, disapprove, or extend review via proceedings), Cboe’s clearinghouse registration has to clear, and Cboe has not yet named the specific 23 companies or published final contract specifications. Treat the October 2026 launch target as exactly that: a target, contingent on a regulatory decision that has not happened yet.
Bottom Line
Cboe’s KPI binary options would let traders bet directly on a reported company metric instead of on how a stock reacts to it, with Robinhood as the exclusive launch broker and a fee-free window through 2026. Whether that happens on schedule comes down to a single date: the SEC’s October 13, 2026 deadline on Cboe’s rule filing.
FAQ
Q: Can I trade Cboe’s KPI binary options right now?
A: No. As of this writing they are pending SEC approval, with a decision deadline of October 13, 2026. Nothing is listed or tradable yet.
Q: Will I need a Robinhood account to trade them?
A: At launch, Robinhood is named as the exclusive retail broker. Cboe has not announced additional retail brokers for the initial rollout.
Q: How is a KPI binary option different from a regular earnings-reaction options trade?
A: A regular option pays based on how the stock’s price moves and scales with the move. A KPI binary option pays a fixed amount based on whether a specific reported metric, like revenue, clears a stated line, independent of how the stock trades.
Q: Are there fees to trade them?
A: Cboe and Robinhood have said they will waive fees on KPI binary options through the end of 2026, as a launch promotion.
Q: What happens if the SEC doesn’t approve the filing by October 13?
A: The SEC could also institute proceedings to further consider the filing, which would push the timeline past October 2026. The launch window is a target, not a guarantee.
For more on how Cboe’s existing prediction-market contracts work, see our breakdown of the mini-SPX Predicts launch, or check our status check on Cboe’s extended-hours options rollout to keep learning about how Cboe has been expanding its product lineup through 2026.